Experts told why the first cryptocurrency could cost $ 18 thousand or $ 100 thousand and whether the current rate of $ 55 thousand is fair
"There are no objective parameters for evaluating bitcoin"
Mikhail Karkhalev, financial analyst at Currency.com cryptoexchange
Investors use financial statements, market share, technology, patents, manufactured products, company investments, and so on to assess the value of a company's stock. In a word, they study a lot of important information that will tell you whether the company is worth its money or not. This is the so-called value investments – the search for undervalued companies.
When an investor concludes that a company is worth less than it should be, he buys it, and vice versa, if the company is overvalued, he does not buy or sell it. With bitcoin, this approach will not work, since it cannot even be attributed as accurately as possible to any asset class. It is simply digital property that does not participate in economic activity: as a business / product / service, as a raw material, as a currency.
Bitcoin, being property, allows its owners to preserve the value of the capital invested in it, as well as increase it. For example, works of art, precious stones, collections of something have a similar function. Such things can cost as much as you like and there are no objective parameters for their assessment. As a rule, they simply go under the hammer of the auction, and their value is determined according to the principle of "who offers the most."
Based on the second point, one can only confirm a certain theory that bitcoin is a cool speculative instrument or asset that allows you to earn both on the difference in its value and through long-term ownership. Trading in speculative instruments is also, in a sense, an auction. If there is demand for bitcoin, its price rises. If there is no demand or its supply prevails in the market, the price falls.
Since the exchange price is a balance of supply and demand, it turns out that the cost of bitcoin is also in equilibrium today, that is, it costs exactly what it should be. This will not work with oil prices, since the cost of raw materials is extremely dependent on the level of production, the economic and political situation in the world, and so on. That is, not a single exchange-traded asset in the world has a price that is based solely on the balance of market supply and demand.
And finally, the situation in the global economy and the development of technology. This point contradicts the previous one a little, but here the point is not that the economy is bad, therefore bitcoin is growing as a defensive asset, like, for example, gold, but that bitcoin has been growing for more than 10 years at an incredible pace, since in the world economy conceptually something is wrong. People are not satisfied with the banking system, they are not satisfied with class inequality, they are not satisfied with total control over money, assets, expenses and income, they are not satisfied with the printing press, the actions of politicians. Advances in technology and the desire to become more self-reliant have motivated people to create and support Bitcoin. That is why it rises in value, because in a sense, it is trusted more than the traditional economy.
It turns out that at the moment, no matter which side you look at, bitcoin is worth exactly as much as it should be. If today its price is $ 55 thousand, it is fair. Considering all the possible factors listed above, if tomorrow it falls to $ 20 thousand or rises to $ 100 thousand, then something has changed and now its value is fair at the current level. In a word, there are no objective factors that would allow a fair assessment of BTC, like oil, gold, euro or dollar, Apple or Magnit shares, except for the current balance of supply and demand.
"The price of bitcoin is the result of trust"
Development Director of the EXMO crypto exchange Maria Stankevich
In my opinion, the objective price of bitcoin, like other currencies (not only crypto), is always the result of trust. There is no difference here from classical finance, since the euro or dollar exchange rate is also the result of trust, the result of the intersection of supply and demand curves.
Trust, as in the traditional financial market, is backed by infrastructure (the dollar is backed by the banking structure, economy, GDP, and so on). Exactly the same cryptocurrencies are backed by financial institutions, exchangers, exchanges, huge mining infrastructure. Accordingly, the objective price of an asset will be different at different times. I think that now the price of $ 55 thousand fully reflects the current state of affairs in the market.
"The cost of mining bitcoin is $ 15-18 thousand."
Co-founder of ENCRY Foundation Roman Nekrasov
The objective price of bitcoin is determined by market mechanisms based on the supply / demand ratio. For how much the owner of bitcoin is willing to sell, and the seller agrees to buy bitcoin. Naturally, the owner wants to sell at a higher price, and the seller wants to buy at a lower price, but somewhere in the middle, their interests will meet – this is the market price of bitcoin.
This raises the question: what if buyers want to buy bitcoins at $ 100? Everything is simple here. The owner of bitcoin will not sell bitcoins for $ 100 if the purchase of this coin cost him 500 times more. Even if this is a miner and he himself mined bitcoins on his equipment as a reward for computing work on the network, then he will not sell bitcoins so cheaply, because he has operating costs – the cost of mining equipment, electricity bills, service, air conditioning systems, rental of premises, salaries of employees and so on. And all this against the background of a high hash rate, even taking into account the fact that it has not yet fully recovered after the summer fall. In total, we see that the cost of mining one bitcoin is now at least $ 15- $ 18 thousand. Why would a miner sell mined bitcoins?
I like Bitcoin because it is absolutely a market instrument. He cannot be underestimated or overestimated. Bitcoin costs exactly as much as it costs. Its current market price fully reflects the value it bears in the eyes of market participants.