Experts talked about the prospects of the asset in the event of a protracted correction and named the level to which the bitcoin rate will never fall again
On November 10, the bitcoin rate updated its historical maximum value at around $ 69 thousand, after which it began to decline. As of November 24 at 19:50 Moscow time, the first cryptocurrency is trading at $ 56.7 thousand, over the past two weeks the asset has fallen in price by 19%. Investors are worried about the possible start of a long-term correction.
The downtrend is reminiscent of 2018, when the cost of the first cryptocurrency fell by almost 85% – from $ 20 thousand to $ 3 thousand.Then such a sharp decline in quotations came as a surprise to many investors who suffered large losses. The experts talked about how low the price of an asset can go during the current market cycle.
Not less than $ 30 thousand
Most likely, bitcoin will no longer cost less than $ 30 thousand, the trend remains growing and with a high probability the asset price will reach $ 80 thousand in 2022, predicted Anton Kravchenko, CEO of Xena Financial Systems. He warned that in the event of a sharp rise in the value of the first cryptocurrency above $ 100 thousand, a strong correction may occur, possibly up to $ 60 thousand.
Not less than $ 20 thousand
Bitcoin is unlikely to ever fall to $ 20 thousand, says Roman Nekrasov, co-founder of the ENCRY Foundation. He called the lower bar for the asset price $ 28-33 thousand. Below this mark, the cryptocurrency will not let a huge glass of buy orders fall, the specialist is sure.
The bitcoin rate is completely dependent on supply / demand. The supply of bitcoin will not increase significantly over time: new coins are produced more slowly, existing coins are distributed among the wallets of investors, and they are unlikely to be able to unite and decide to sell their assets at the same time, the expert explained. According to him, this is not beneficial to them. If supply is always limited, then demand, on the contrary, is constantly growing – both from retail and institutional investors, Nekrasov argues.
“Those investors who enter the asset for $ 20-30-50 thousand will not want to sell it at a loss. Moreover, before their eyes there was already an experience of such unreasonable actions: those investors who bought bitcoin at its peak in December 2017 and then rushed to sell it during the crypto winter were the losers. But they only had to wait an extra year, ”the specialist explained. He is sure that even if bitcoin falls to $ 30 thousand, bitcoin investors will not rush to sell it in the red.
From the point of view of technical analysis of the market, the growth from $ 4 thousand to $ 69 thousand can be considered as an impulsive trend wave, said leading analyst at 8848 Invest Viktor Pershikov. If we assume that next year a correction to this significant increase may begin, then its maximum, at which the correction does not break the current uptrend, should not exceed 78.6% of the trend, which means the maximum correction target in the region of $ 17.8 thousand. , the specialist found out. He called this the most critical correction for which one needs to be prepared, but its probability is now extremely low.
Also, when determining the maximum reduction in the price of BTC in a normal market (without force majeure), one can proceed from the payback price of the main volume of the mining business. In other words, below what price mining becomes unprofitable for the largest participants, and what level they will protect through BTC purchases or derivatives. Taking into account the cost of electricity at 4 rubles per kilowatt, and the current indicators of complexity, for such equipment as Whatsminer m21s, such a price level for BTC is $ 15.5 thousand, added Pershikov. It is important to understand that this is a very rough estimate, since the cost of electricity is not the same everywhere, and the complexity is variable. But even with a cursory analysis, it is obvious that a drop in the rate by 3-4 times from the current one will not lead the mining industry to losses or non-profit, the expert emphasized.
In general, a fall in the price of bitcoin below the $ 20 thousand level is technically possible, but fundamentally unlikely, Pershikov claims. He concluded that even with such a correction, the industry will not experience major shocks, since in the past, price corrections were much more significant.
Not less than $ 1 thousand
Markets can both grow endlessly and fall by almost 100% during the great depression and turmoil, warned Cryptorg CEO Andrey Podolyan. He made a cautious prediction that Bitcoin will not be worth less than $ 1,000.
“A huge number of people, foundations and even states have already been drawn into the game. All this will not allow the price of the cryptocurrency to fall to zero, "Podolyan stressed.