The price of the first cryptocurrency approached its all-time high of $ 64.8 thousand. Experts explained why in the coming weeks there will be a high probability of a local decline in quotations
On October 19, the price of bitcoin for the first time in six months exceeded $ 63.2 thousand. The last time the asset was traded at this level was in April, when its value renewed its historical maximum at around $ 64.8 thousand. buy it now.
Two scenarios
Bitcoin has come close to the target zone of $ 63.5-64 thousand, explained the co-founder of the EXMO crypto exchange Ivan Petukhovsky. According to him, in the future, one should expect two scenarios for the development of events, the probability of which is almost the same:
- Powerful breakout of the target zone with a renewal of the historical maximum and subsequent impulse growth;
- Rollback after bitcoin's attempt to update its historical maximum.
The expert advised to act in the current situation based on what is happening on the market. According to Petukhovsky, a powerful breakdown of the $ 64 thousand level can be used to buy with a target in the $ 72 thousand region. This idea looks risky, since finding the asset price in the area of the historical maximum is always accompanied by a large number of false movements, Petukhovsky warned.
“There is a risk of triggering the stop loss, which in this deal should be in the region of $ 60 thousand,” the expert noted.
In the event that the bitcoin price shows a recoilless update of the historical maximum, such a transaction can bring a profit of 12.5%, Petukhovsky added. He also predicted that in case of an unsuccessful attempt to update the maximum and subsequent decline, a good level for buying bitcoin would be $ 52-50 thousand.
Choosing a strategy
The admissibility of buying bitcoin in this situation depends on the investor's strategy, explained Nikita Zuborev, senior analyst at Bestchange.ru. According to him, if the period for buying an asset is short-term (up to a month), then the risks will be extremely high and the chances of losing funds will be the same as increasing them.
“Technical indicators point to a high degree of risk of the start of a corrective movement. For example, the RSI is close to the critical level (in the range of 70-80), which indicates local "overbought" – added the analyst.
The level of $ 62 thousand, at which bitcoin is currently located, is comfortable for buying with a medium-term investment horizon (from two months), says Zuborev. He explained that in December, the rate of the first cryptocurrency may be trading significantly higher than current levels, but in the coming weeks there remains a high risk of a local decline.