Why do analysts expect the first cryptocurrency to grow in the first half of next year and why market participants remain positive
Trader Nicholas Merten believes that the next few months bitcoin will be in a "flat", and in March next year will return to active growth and rise in price to $ 100 thousand. In the most optimistic scenario, the price of the first cryptocurrency may rise to $ 200 thousand, said Merten.
In November, the author of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and analyst under the pseudonym PlanB admitted that the bitcoin rate could exceed $ 500,000 early next year. The expert claims that the first cryptocurrency is somewhere in the middle of the current bullish trend and the peak of growth may be much higher than expected.
Topplabs.org experts evaluated analysts' forecasts and explained the prospects for Bitcoin next year.
Bitcoin is not a security, and its value depends not only on technical and fundamental analyzes, but also on many factors that have a significant impact on the rate, explained Maria Stankevich, Development Director of the EXMO crypto exchange. According to her, despite the presence of a certain "bullish" trend, trying to predict the price of bitcoin next year is nothing more than guessing on the coffee grounds.
From a fundamental point of view, bitcoin has potential, the expert explained. She added that the potential of the cryptocurrency is confirmed by various on-chain data and large purchases of bitcoin by "whales" during corrections. However, Stankevich recalled that various negative events can significantly affect the quotes of the crypto market.
“One possible decision by the SEC to ban Bitcoin or USDT could have a significant impact on the rate,” the expert noted.
On December 1, the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler called Bitcoin an autonomous alternative and competitor to the US banking system. Gensler previously argued that the regulator has no plans to ban Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
All forecasts regarding cryptocurrencies should be taken with a high degree of skepticism, says Nikita Soshnikov, director of the Alfacash cryptocurrency exchange service. He agreed with Nicholas Merten that Bitcoin will return to a strong rally after a sideways period as the cryptocurrency retains the potential to move up.
“This scenario is supported by the continuous growth of the share of hodlers – investors who prefer to store bitcoins for a long time in their personal wallets. This has a certain stimulating effect on the bitcoin rate, ”the expert noted.
Soshnikov expressed doubts about the possibility of a rise in the price of bitcoin to $ 200 thousand next year. To do this, the coin needs to quadruple its value, but in his opinion, there is not enough incentive for such an increase. The trigger for more than fourfold growth in 2022 could be the launch of the first US spot Bitcoin ETF, Soshnikov said.
“We will see $ 200,000, but not in the coming months. My forecast is mid-2023, ”the expert added.
The market is positive
The current sideways movement on the cryptomarket does not cause any serious concerns among cryptoinvestors, says the co-founder of Crypterium, Vladimir Gorbunov. According to him, this indicates that the majority of market participants are in a positive disposition.
“If I was personally asked if I believe that bitcoin will cost $ 500 thousand in a few years, without fixing on how many years exactly, I would say that definitely yes,” the expert noted.
According to Gorbunov's forecast, the first quarter of next year on the crypto market will be positive, since there are no factors for the negative growth so far. New participants enter the market, trading volumes are growing, and promising projects appear in the industry, the expert says. After a period of active growth in early 2022, a correction is likely to occur in the digital asset market, which will last until about autumn, Gorbunov predicted.